X Factor Predictions: Second Live Attempt

After last week's try at predicting the bottom 2 got Amelia correct in 5th, but missed Misha's rise to safety, it was time for my model to deliver this week. The twitter stats came through on the Saturday night - earlier than before, but I wasn't too worried about the inconsistency as I'm told Saturday night generates most of the traffic. No reason to make any changes to the model this week, so I plugged the figures in and risked making an idiot of myself with the following figures:

Contestant Vote Share
Little Mix 28.3%
Marcus 25.5%
Amelia 18.8%
Janet 16.6%
Misha 10.9%

And this week....it was spot on. The live results show announced a bottom 2 of Misha/Janet, with Janet being eliminated by a majority verdict (which strongly supports her not being bottom.) My model involves giving each contestant a weighting to reflect the link between their online support and voting base; Janet's is much larger than any other contestants, as she was continually safe (and allegedly topping the voting) despite having no greater twitter volumes than others.

Her drop in support was obvious this week, and for her to end up in the relatively narrow margin between Amelia and Misha is a real indication that it's an accurate model (or just plain lucky, take your pick...)

Here is the updated results graph:

And by popular* request here are the same figures compared to the average vote each week. This shows a bit more than the previous graph, as an act scoring the average vote each week will be a flat line at 100%, and an act heading upwards really is gaining support. On the previous graph, Janet is shown as gaining support from week 4 to week 5, but that's because there were 2 fewer acts in week 5; this one shows that she was actually being dragged closer to the average vote in week 5. I've taken Sami and Sophie off as it was too cluttered otherwise, and I've completely ignored Nu Vibe so all the percentages in week 1 will be a little lower in reality.

Anything to learn this week? A couple of thoughts:

(*) As with everything else on this site, popular is defined as a proportion rather than a number ;)