X Factor Predictions: First Live Attempt

I posted here my attempt to come up with a way of translating X Factor twitter traffic, both positive and negative, into vote share week after week. It depends on limited information on bottom placings (from the show itself) and top placings (mostly through articles in the Daily Star) and uses weekly trends to detect movements. Knowing whether an act was top/bottom 2 allows me to fix it in a range, and I take account of the fact that some acts have larger fanbases on twitter by weighting each act proportionally.

Today, November 20th, was the first live test of the model. Firstly there was one change from the previous week; I'd had to guess how Amelia Lily did by giving her the same weighting as Little Mix which put her at just over 30%; however a newspaper leak suggested that she was around 25%, so I decreased her weighting to hit this exactly. Still winning the vote, but not by much. When the twitter results were published I put them through the model, and posted the following on sofabet:

I have to rush so I’ve no time to write an article but I’ve put your findings through my model.
I’ve only made one change since last week; Amelia only got 25% instead of 30% according to the Star so I’ve moved her weighting down (still have her winning the vote, but only just)
I get the following vote percentages for this week:
JANET 31.8%
MARCUS 12.1%
CRAIG 9.5%
MISHA 5.0%
One note of caution – Toby has changed the way little mix are recorded (adding ‘lilmix’. Any changes from week to week will cause problems with my model, so I’d be interested to see the little mix figure withou ‘lilmix’ being included. So they are probably a strong second to Janet.)
This is a disaster from Marcus – I have him hugely down on last week. And although it’s very tight, and does depend on that downweighting of Amelia, the figures do suggest that the biscuit boy will survive to dunk another day.
Good luck

Come the results show, it's revealed that Craig was last with Amelia next. My gut feeling? Disappointed. Amelia 5th was spot on (and many had suggested she would be well clear - I was certainly right that she was down there) but I had missed Misha's bounce out of the bottom 2, and had Amelia and Craig the wrong way round.

I looked carefully at the figures and the model, and made 2 changes:

This updates the full graph to:

Three points to make:

As before, comments/criticisms/suggestions welcome to tpfkar@hotmail.com or in the comments box on sofabet.

And to see the second attempt at predicting the live voting via twitter, see here.